Football betting is one big conundrum for punters due to the number of options available to predict the outcome of a game. One of the popular options that many go for is to bet on goals.
Since to win matches, a team has to score goals, this form of prediction has become popular over the years as online betting has spread across the world. This type of football bet looks easy to an average punter who may think he can predict how many goals could occur in a match.
However, just like other aspects of betting, you need to analyse and understand the intricacies involved before staking. In this article, we will be discussing how to use well-tested strategies to play your over or under predictions.
We would be focusing on the over or under 2.5 goals.
What Is Under/Under 2.5 Goals
Under/over 2.5 goals is the type of bet where you predict whether a match would have more than two goals or lesser as the case maybe.
This is the most popular goals prediction by punters. This is partly due to the fact that football is a low scoring game and high scoring games tend to have 3 goals in total.
- Understanding Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Although it sounds pretty complicated, the betting market with goals of less than 2.5 goals is actually remarkably simple. It all depends on the number of goals scored in a football match. What you do is bet if there will be more or less than three goals in a match.
It is interesting to note that 2.5 is actually the average number of goals scored at football matches in the world, although that obviously varies a bit by the league.
Now, you may be wondering how there can be 2.5 goals in a football match – how do you score a half-goal? The market does not suggest a half-goal, but a binary result: your bet can only win or lose, there cannot be a tie.
If there are two goals or less, the score is less than 2.5. If there are three goals or more, it’s more than 2.5 goals. Here are the possible results for under 2.5 goals. 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0, 0-2. All other results are Over 2.5 goals.
Advantages Of Wagering On More Than 2.5 Goals
There are many advantages to betting on the betting market for goals of more than 2.5. First, as we mentioned above, this is one of the most popular markets for punters, which means excellent liquidity. In fact, this is the only market where odds are interesting for finding values and ratings tends to attract more cash. You should therefore have no problem getting good value for your bets.
At the same time, you generally get good odds on more than 2.5 goals. In general, odds that are stopped just before the start of the match are often close to the real probability, although this can vary considerably depending on the team.
The odds of Barcelona and Real Madrid, for example, will often be close to the 1.3 mark, while low-performing league teams like Greece and France could be closer to 2.5.
It can also be fun to bet on the market because you do not have to worry about who will win the match, but at least three goals. So every time a goal is scored, you can encourage and celebrate getting closer to victory.
Especially when you watch teams that have scored goals, it can be thrilling to watch a game from start to finish and you enjoy every action.
Finally, you can expect a reasonably high hit rate among the winners, with over 2.5 goals allowed, around 50% of the games ending in overs. However, this will depend on the league and the team.
DISADVANTAGES OF BETTING ON + 2.5 GOALS
The main disadvantage of wagering on more than 2.5 goals is that you will not win as many bets like betting on over 1.5 goals. As we mentioned above, about 50% of the games have more than 2.5 goals, so only half of your bets will win.
The other thing, of course, is that it can be quite frustrating to get two goals in a game and wait for the third goal, but it just does not happen.
Especially if the teams shoot at goal, hit the posts and the goalkeepers make decisive saves, it can be very difficult to lose that kind of bet sometimes.
Best Strategy To Analyse Over/Under 2.5 Bets
The method consists of assigning a score to a match based on the last 4 league games played by both teams. A site like soccerstats.com is essential for this kind of analysis.
For each team, award a score for each of their last matches by applying this scoring system:
- Match with 3 goals or more: +0.50 points
- Match where both teams scored: +0.75 points
- Match with 2 goals or less: -0.50 points
- Match where only 1 team scored: -0.75 points
Once the scores are awarded, make the total and bet in under 2.5 only on matches that score less than -5 points, and in over 2.5 only on matches that score more than +5 points. These are arbitrary limits, it’s up to you to choose yours with experience.
At the time of the bet, we must of course take the odds of the bookmaker. It is the relationship between the analysis of the match, your rating and the proposed odds that will determine whether the bet is worth it.
An Example To Illustrate This Method is below
Premier League game between Arsenal and Chelsea
Arsenal v Chelsea
Last 4 Vancouver league games Whitecaps
- Arsenal v Liverpool: 0 – 1 (-0.5 – 0.75 = – 1.25 points)
- Manchester City v Arsenal: 4 – 0 (0.5 – 0.75 = – 0.25 points)
- Arsenal v Wolves: 5 – 2 (0.5 + 0.75 = 1.25 points)
- Tottenham v Arsenal: 1 – 2 (0.5 + 0.75 = 1, 25 points)
Total score: +1 point
Chelsea last 4 games
- Chelsea v Norwich : 3 – 2 (0.5 + 0.75 = 1.25 points)
- Southampton v Chelsea: 1 – 1 (-0.5 + 0.75 = 0.25 points)
- Liverpool v Chelsea: 0 – 1 (-0.5 – 0.75 = – 1.25 points)
- Leicester v Chelsea: 1 – 2 (0.5 + 0.75 = 1 , 25 points)
Total score: +1.5 points
This gives usa total of +2.5 points, which gives a tendency to over 2.5 even if we are below the limit originally planned at +5 points to bet on the over 2.5.
In terms of odds, if the bookmakers odds on average for this match was.
- over 2.5: 1.45
- under 2.5: 2.20
The odd of over 2.5 is reasonable; we can possibly adjust the bet according to our level of confidence. For example, 1 unit when you exceed +5 points, and 0.5 units between 2 and 5 points. Once again, it is up to you to create from this base and your experience your own system.